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***M.Sc. Students in Health Systems, this event can count towards one of the six mandatory Research Seminars Series needed to attend (MHS6991).***
Lauren Cipriano, PhD
Canada Research Chair in Healthcare Analytics, Management, and Policy; Associate Professor, Ivey Business School and the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Western University
Background: University students have higher average number of contacts than the general population. Students returning to university campuses may exacerbate COVID-19 dynamics in the surrounding community.
Methods: We developed a dynamic transmission model of COVID-19 in a mid-sized city (pop. 500,000) currently experiencing a low infection rate. We evaluated the impact of 20,000 university students arriving on September 1 in terms of cumulative COVID-19 infections, time to peak infections, and the timing and peak level of critical care occupancy. We also considered how these impacts might be mitigated through screening interventions targeted to students.
Results: If arriving students reduce their contacts by 24% compared to pre-COVID levels, the total number of infections in the community increases by 87% (from 3,900 to 7,299), with 71% of the incremental infections occurring in the general population, and an incremental 17 COVID-19 deaths. Screening students every 5 days reduces the number of infections attributable to the student population by 42% and the total COVID-19 deaths by 7. One-time mass screening of students prevents fewer infections than 5-day screening, but is more efficient, requiring 157 tests needed to avert one infection instead of 348.
Interpretation: University students are highly inter-connected with the surrounding off-campus community. Screening targeted at this high-transmission population provides significant public health benefits to the community through averted infections, critical care admissions, and COVID-19 deaths.
About the Speaker
Lauren Cipriano is an Associate Professor at the Ivey Business School and in the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics at Western University where she holds the Canada Research Chair in Healthcare Analytics, Management, and Policy. She earned her PhD in Management Science and Engineering and MS in Statistics at Stanford University. Lauren’s research interests focus on the application of statistics, decision analysis, operations research, and systems analysis to health policy problems. Lauren previously worked at the Institute for Technology Assessment at Massachusetts General Hospital. Lauren was the 2019 winner of the Dr. Maurice McGregor Award for Health Technology Assessment. Lauren is the Deputy Editor of Medical Decision Making and MDM Policy & Practice.
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